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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Workout Harbourside v University of Bath 1 (Thu 25 Oct 2018)Match played between Karina Tyma (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 12-10,3-11,5-11,6-11:3-11,4-11,8-11:9-11,8-11,11-8,2-11:11-4,7-11,11-3,7-11,11-9:11-8,11-6,11-4. Starting level for Karina Tyma: 5,372, level confidence: 22%. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 7,069, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Karina Tyma. Cameron Haddow won 75% of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 38% better than Karina Tyma in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Haddow actually played at a level of 7,248 and Karina Tyma at a level of 5,240. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 2.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to +0.7% and Karina Tyma changes to -2.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes +0.4% and for Karina Tyma becomes -1.3%. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.1% has been applied to his level change. Given Karina Tyma's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.6% has been applied to her level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is 0% and for Karina Tyma is -0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 84%, Karina Tyma: 47%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 82%, Karina Tyma: 45%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Karina Tyma: 5,330, level confidence: 45%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 7,113, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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