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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: BAWA A v University of Bath 2 (Wed 14 Nov 2018)Match played between David Wright (home) and Josh Finn (away).Match won by David Wright. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-2. Starting level for David Wright: 2,489, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Josh Finn: 447, level confidence: 52%. David Wright to win as he is currently playing 457% better than Josh Finn. David Wright won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wright played 106% better than Josh Finn in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Wright was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 641 and 2,489 without affecting his level. In this case, David Wright played at level 1,120 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Wright would normally have been playing at level 1,362 (based on typical behaviour), Josh Finn played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wright changes to 0% and Josh Finn changes to +8.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wright becomes 0% and for Josh Finn becomes +5.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for David Wright is 0% and for Josh Finn is +4.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wright: 82%, Josh Finn: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wright: 50%, Josh Finn: 44%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Wright: 2,483, level confidence: 50%. Final level for Josh Finn: 465, level confidence: 44%. Notes
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