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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bath 2 v Lansdown 2 (Wed 24 Oct 2018)Match played between Toby 'Has Potential' Jane (home) and Jonathan Cordier (away).Match won by Jonathan Cordier. Result: 7-11,9-11,1-11. Starting level for Toby 'Has Potential' Jane: 1,744, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Jonathan Cordier: 2,924, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Jonathan Cordier to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Toby 'Has Potential' Jane. Jonathan Cordier won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Cordier played 94% better than Toby 'Has Potential' Jane in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonathan Cordier actually played at a level of 3,146 and Toby 'Has Potential' Jane at a level of 1,621. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.6% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 5.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Cordier changes to +0.8% and Toby 'Has Potential' Jane changes to -5.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Cordier becomes +0.5% and for Toby 'Has Potential' Jane becomes -3.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jonathan Cordier is +0.4% and for Toby 'Has Potential' Jane is -2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Cordier: 86%, Toby 'Has Potential' Jane: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Cordier: 80%, Toby 'Has Potential' Jane: 29%. A final adjustment of +7.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Toby 'Has Potential' Jane: 1,918, level confidence: 29%. Final level for Jonathan Cordier: 2,995, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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