|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Ballers v Keynsham A (Thu 15 Nov 2018)Match played between Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner (home) and Chris Osborne (away).Match won by Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner. Result: 15-10,5-15,15-11,15-8. Starting level for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 2,545, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Chris Osborne: 2,051, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Chris Osborne. Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner won 75% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner played 21% better than Chris Osborne in this match. In this case, Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner played at level 2,497 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner would normally have been playing at level 2,506 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Osborne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner changes to 0% and Chris Osborne changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner becomes 0% and for Chris Osborne becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner is 0% and for Chris Osborne is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 73%, Chris Osborne: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 72%, Chris Osborne: 86%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 2,540, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Chris Osborne: 2,049, level confidence: 86%. Notes
|