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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 3 v Weston String Strokers (Wed 17 Oct 2018)Match played between Harry 'The Butcher' Colley (home) and George 'Warm-Up' Weston (away).Match won by George 'Warm-Up' Weston. Result: 12-15,6-15,12-15. Starting level for Harry 'The Butcher' Colley: 1,866, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 3,118, level confidence: 66%. George 'Warm-Up' Weston to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Harry 'The Butcher' Colley. George 'Warm-Up' Weston won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George 'Warm-Up' Weston played 52% better than Harry 'The Butcher' Colley in this match. In this case, George 'Warm-Up' Weston played at level 2,861 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that George 'Warm-Up' Weston would normally have been playing at level 2,893 (based on typical behaviour), Harry 'The Butcher' Colley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston changes to 0% and Harry 'The Butcher' Colley changes to +0.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston becomes 0% and for Harry 'The Butcher' Colley becomes +0.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston is 0% and for Harry 'The Butcher' Colley is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 81%, Harry 'The Butcher' Colley: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 77%, Harry 'The Butcher' Colley: 30%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry 'The Butcher' Colley: 1,888, level confidence: 30%. Final level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 3,114, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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