|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Chiefs v Gordano A (Tue 20 Nov 2018)Match played between Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran (home) and Steve Gale (away).Match won by Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran. Result: 15-3,15-9,15-12. Starting level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,612, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Steve Gale: 1,386, level confidence: 66%. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Steve Gale. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran played 88% better than Steve Gale in this match. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 1909. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran actually played at a level of 2,227 and Steve Gale at a level of 1,188. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran changes to +14% and Steve Gale changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran becomes +6.5% and for Steve Gale becomes -7.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is +4.9% and for Steve Gale is -5.2%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is +24%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 79%, Steve Gale: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 63%, Steve Gale: 64%. A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 2,004, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Steve Gale: 1,355, level confidence: 64%. Notes
|