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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: David Lloyd Battle Oats v Lansdown 3 (Wed 19 Dec 2018)Match played between Joe Coppin (home) and Conall Platts (away).Match won by Joe Coppin. Result: 15-4,15-9,15-7:10-15,12-15,6-15:7-15,15-12,16-14,15-13:15-12,15-7,15-7:13-15,8-15,15-11,6-15. Starting level for Joe Coppin: 2,668, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Conall Platts: 2,291, level confidence: 64%. Joe Coppin to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Conall Platts. Joe Coppin won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Coppin played 125% better than Conall Platts in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Coppin actually played at a level of 3,708 and Conall Platts at a level of 1,648. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Coppin changes to +31% and Conall Platts changes to -36%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Coppin becomes +11.2% and for Conall Platts becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Joe Coppin is +8.4% and for Conall Platts is -9.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Conall Platts is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Coppin: 85%, Conall Platts: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Coppin: 61%, Conall Platts: 57%. A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Joe Coppin: 2,886, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Conall Platts: 2,176, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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