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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: BAWA / Kingswood v Redland Dodos (Wed 28 Nov 2018)Match played between Ian Pittas (home) and Asad Choudhary (away).Match won by Asad Choudhary. Result: 11-15,8-15,11-15:9-15,9-15,15-11,7-15:15-12,11-15,15-10,6-15,15-12:12-15,2-15,3-15:15-10,12-15,9-15,8-15. Starting level for Ian Pittas: 1,932, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Asad Choudhary: 3,790, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Asad Choudhary to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Ian Pittas. Asad Choudhary won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Asad Choudhary played 52% better than Ian Pittas in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Asad Choudhary was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,864 and 3,790 without affecting his level. In this case, Asad Choudhary played at level 3,131 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Asad Choudhary would normally have been playing at level 3,346 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Pittas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Asad Choudhary changes to 0% and Ian Pittas changes to +4.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Asad Choudhary becomes 0% and for Ian Pittas becomes +2.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Asad Choudhary is 0% and for Ian Pittas is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Asad Choudhary: 84%, Ian Pittas: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Asad Choudhary: 74%, Ian Pittas: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Pittas: 1,959, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Asad Choudhary: 3,770, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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