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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Thornbury D v Redwood Phoenix (Wed 26 Sep 2018)Match played between James Jenkins (home) and Les Wharram (away).Match won by James Jenkins. Result: 15-8,15-9,15-8. Starting level for James Jenkins: 738, level confidence: 41%. Starting level for Les Wharram: 915, level confidence: 41%. Les Wharram to win as he is currently playing 24% better than James Jenkins. James Jenkins won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Jenkins played 80% better than Les Wharram in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Jenkins actually played at a level of 1,102 and Les Wharram at a level of 612. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Jenkins changes to +43% and Les Wharram changes to -43%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Jenkins becomes +21.5% and for Les Wharram becomes -21%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for James Jenkins is +16% and for Les Wharram is -15%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Jenkins is limited to +10% and Les Wharram is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Jenkins: 64%, Les Wharram: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Jenkins: 43%, Les Wharram: 43%. A final adjustment of +2.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Jenkins: 876, level confidence: 43%. Final level for Les Wharram: 805, level confidence: 43%. Notes
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