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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Workout Harbourside v Redland Eagles (Wed 07 Nov 2018)Match played between Finn Kettlewell (home) and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (away).Match won by Finn Kettlewell. Result: 15-7,15-10,15-10. Starting level for Finn Kettlewell: 2,641, level confidence: 42%. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,192, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Finn Kettlewell to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Finn Kettlewell won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Finn Kettlewell played 67% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Finn Kettlewell was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,825 and 2,641 without affecting his level. In this case, Finn Kettlewell played at level 2,110 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Finn Kettlewell would normally have been playing at level 2,241 (based on typical behaviour), Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Finn Kettlewell changes to 0% and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to +2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Finn Kettlewell becomes 0% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes +2.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Finn Kettlewell is 0% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Finn Kettlewell: 65%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Finn Kettlewell: 56%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 76%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Finn Kettlewell: 2,657, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,214, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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