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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: University of Bristol Sharks v Redland Eagles (Tue 20 Nov 2018)Match played between Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran (home) and Tim Hare (away).Match won by Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran. Result: 15-11,15-13,15-6:12-15,15-7,15-6,15-5:15-6,8-15,10-15,12-15:17-19,17-15,8-15,19-17,8-15:11-15,15-12,15-8,15-7. Starting level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 2,004, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Tim Hare: 1,510, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Tim Hare. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran played 52% better than Tim Hare in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran actually played at a level of 2,142 and Tim Hare at a level of 1,413. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran changes to +6% and Tim Hare changes to -5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran becomes +3.4% and for Tim Hare becomes -3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is +2.6% and for Tim Hare is -2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 79%, Tim Hare: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 74%, Tim Hare: 80%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 2,054, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Tim Hare: 1,485, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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