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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Kingsdown Stallions v University of Bristol Sharks (Wed 05 Dec 2018)Match played between David Mortimer (home) and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg (away).Match won by Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg. Result: 8-15,12-15,11-15. Starting level for David Mortimer: 836, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,406, level confidence: 69%. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg to win as he is currently playing 68% better than David Mortimer. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg played 48% better than David Mortimer in this match. In this case, Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg played at level 1,271 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg would normally have been playing at level 1,302 (based on typical behaviour), David Mortimer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg changes to 0% and David Mortimer changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg becomes 0% and for David Mortimer becomes +1.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is 0% and for David Mortimer is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 83%, David Mortimer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 78%, David Mortimer: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Mortimer: 844, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,401, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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