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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 8: University of Bristol Fresh v BAWA (Tue 16 Oct 2018)Match played between Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman (home) and Andy Jones (away).Match won by Andy Jones. Result: 5-15,8-15,5-15. Starting level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 350, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Andy Jones: 1,273, level confidence: 40%. Andy Jones to win as he is currently playing 264% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman. Andy Jones won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Jones played 150% better than Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy Jones was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 552 and 1,273 without affecting his level. In this case, Andy Jones played at level 877 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Jones changes to 0% and Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Jones becomes 0% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Andy Jones is 0% and for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Jones: 64%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Jones: 53%, Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 62%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Intensity' Schlossman: 351, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Andy Jones: 1,276, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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