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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd A v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 20 Oct 2011)Match played between Charmyn Hall (home) and Rachel Brindley (away).Match won by Charmyn Hall. Result: 9-1,7-9,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Charmyn Hall: 498, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Rachel Brindley: 440, level confidence: 68%. Charmyn Hall to win as she is currently playing 13% better than Rachel Brindley. Charmyn Hall won 75% of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charmyn Hall played 45% better than Rachel Brindley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charmyn Hall actually played at a level of 564 and Rachel Brindley at a level of 389. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charmyn Hall changes to +12% and Rachel Brindley changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charmyn Hall becomes +7.6% and for Rachel Brindley becomes -7.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2011' so the adjustment for Charmyn Hall is +5.7% and for Rachel Brindley is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rachel Brindley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charmyn Hall: 83%, Rachel Brindley: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charmyn Hall: 73%, Rachel Brindley: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charmyn Hall: 525, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Rachel Brindley: 418, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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