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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Panthers v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 10 Nov 2011)Match played between Cecilia Mercieca (home) and Rachel Brindley (away).Match won by Cecilia Mercieca. Result: 9-1,9-3,9-3. Starting level for Cecilia Mercieca: 606, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Rachel Brindley: 443, level confidence: 65%. Cecilia Mercieca to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Rachel Brindley. Cecilia Mercieca won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cecilia Mercieca played 97% better than Rachel Brindley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cecilia Mercieca actually played at a level of 727 and Rachel Brindley at a level of 369. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cecilia Mercieca changes to +17% and Rachel Brindley changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cecilia Mercieca becomes +9.6% and for Rachel Brindley becomes -9.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2011' so the adjustment for Cecilia Mercieca is +7.2% and for Rachel Brindley is -7.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rachel Brindley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cecilia Mercieca: 81%, Rachel Brindley: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cecilia Mercieca: 68%, Rachel Brindley: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cecilia Mercieca: 649, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Rachel Brindley: 421, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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