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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Jaguars v Redland Winter Panthers (Thu 22 Sep 2011)Match played between Rachel Brindley (home) and Susannah Reynolds (away).Match won by Rachel Brindley. Result: 9-2,9-5,9-5. Starting level for Rachel Brindley: 419, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Susannah Reynolds: 459, level confidence: 30%. Susannah Reynolds to win as she is currently playing 10% better than Rachel Brindley. Rachel Brindley won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rachel Brindley played 52% better than Susannah Reynolds in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rachel Brindley actually played at a level of 541 and Susannah Reynolds at a level of 355. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rachel Brindley changes to +12% and Susannah Reynolds changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rachel Brindley becomes +7.2% and for Susannah Reynolds becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2011' so the adjustment for Rachel Brindley is +5.4% and for Susannah Reynolds is -10.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Susannah Reynolds is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rachel Brindley: 85%, Susannah Reynolds: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rachel Brindley: 66%, Susannah Reynolds: 43%. A final adjustment of +2.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rachel Brindley: 441, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Susannah Reynolds: 436, level confidence: 43%. Notes
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