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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Jaguars v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Fri 16 Dec 2011)Match played between Anita Edson (home) and Jenny Sharpe (away).Match won by Anita Edson. Result: 9-4,9-4,9-4. Starting level for Anita Edson: 590, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Jenny Sharpe: 178, level confidence: 47%. Anita Edson to win as she is currently playing 231% better than Jenny Sharpe. Anita Edson won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anita Edson played 52% better than Jenny Sharpe in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Anita Edson was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 284 and 590 without affecting her level. As Anita Edson has played below her allowed range at 277, her level reduction is 2.3% before damping. On the assumption that Anita Edson would normally have been playing at level 426 (based on typical behaviour), Jenny Sharpe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anita Edson changes to -0.7% and Jenny Sharpe changes to +13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anita Edson becomes -0.7% and for Jenny Sharpe becomes +8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2011' so the adjustment for Anita Edson is -0.5% and for Jenny Sharpe is +6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anita Edson: 90%, Jenny Sharpe: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anita Edson: 61%, Jenny Sharpe: 46%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anita Edson: 586, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Jenny Sharpe: 188, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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