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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2A: Lansdown 7 v Weston (Wed 16 Nov 2011)Match played between Mark Groves (home) and Mike La Band (away).Match won by Mark Groves. Result: 10-9,9-3,9-0. Starting level for Mark Groves: 1,273, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Mike La Band: 668, level confidence: 36%. Mark Groves to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Mike La Band. Mark Groves won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Groves played 55% better than Mike La Band in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Groves was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 984 and 1,273 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark Groves played at level 1,084 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Groves would normally have been playing at level 1,135 (based on typical behaviour), Mike La Band played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Groves changes to 0% and Mike La Band changes to +3.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Groves becomes 0% and for Mike La Band becomes +3.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2011' so the adjustment for Mark Groves is 0% and for Mike La Band is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Groves: 80%, Mike La Band: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Groves: 72%, Mike La Band: 54%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Groves: 1,276, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Mike La Band: 686, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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