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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd A v Westbury David Lloyd Women's winter A (Thu 11 Mar 2010)Match played between Emma Bassett (home) and Charmyn Hall (away).Match won by Charmyn Hall. Result: 9-7,2-9,2-9,10-8,2-9. Starting level for Emma Bassett: 760, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Charmyn Hall: 503, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Emma Bassett to win as she is currently playing 51% better than Charmyn Hall. Charmyn Hall won 60% of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 32% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charmyn Hall played 16% better than Emma Bassett in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charmyn Hall actually played at a level of 664 and Emma Bassett at a level of 575. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charmyn Hall changes to +23% and Emma Bassett changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charmyn Hall becomes +12.5% and for Emma Bassett becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Charmyn Hall is +9.4% and for Emma Bassett is -9.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Emma Bassett is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charmyn Hall: 85%, Emma Bassett: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charmyn Hall: 64%, Emma Bassett: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Emma Bassett: 723, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Charmyn Hall: 549, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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