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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Llamas v Redland Winter Jaguars (Thu 18 Mar 2010)Match played between Chantelle Day (home) and Ruth Drysdale (away).Match won by Chantelle Day. Result: 9-1,9-3,9-0. Starting level for Chantelle Day: 814, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Ruth Drysdale: 629, level confidence: 64%. Chantelle Day to win as she is currently playing 29% better than Ruth Drysdale. Chantelle Day won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chantelle Day played 164% better than Ruth Drysdale in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chantelle Day actually played at a level of 1,163 and Ruth Drysdale at a level of 440. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chantelle Day changes to +37% and Ruth Drysdale changes to -36%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chantelle Day becomes +18.7% and for Ruth Drysdale becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Chantelle Day is +14% and for Ruth Drysdale is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chantelle Day is limited to +10% and Ruth Drysdale is limited to -5.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chantelle Day: 79%, Ruth Drysdale: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chantelle Day: 56%, Ruth Drysdale: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chantelle Day: 894, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Ruth Drysdale: 593, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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