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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bristol Chiefs v University of Bath 4 (Wed 11 Nov 2009)Match played between Tom Marley (home) and David Evans (away).Match won by David Evans. Result: 7-9,0-9,0-9:6-9,4-9,6-9:1-9,4-9,9-5,9-4,5-9:9-0,9-2,9-1:9-2,9-1,9-4. Starting level for Tom Marley: 3,477, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for David Evans: 26,802, level confidence: 10%. David Evans to win as he is currently playing 671% better than Tom Marley. David Evans won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Evans played 97% better than Tom Marley in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Evans was taking it easy by anything up to 54%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,785 and 26,802 without affecting his level. In this case, David Evans played at level 9,239 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Evans would normally have been playing at level 12,463 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Marley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 35%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Evans changes to 0% and Tom Marley changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Evans becomes 0% and for Tom Marley becomes +1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2009/2010' so the adjustment for David Evans is 0% and for Tom Marley is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Evans: 32%, Tom Marley: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Evans: 16%, Tom Marley: 43%. A final adjustment of -5.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom Marley: 3,593, level confidence: 43%. Final level for David Evans: 23,381, level confidence: 16%. Notes
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