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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 4 v David Lloyd (Wed 18 Nov 2009)Match played between Paul Clarke (home) and Jason Mathias (away).Match won by Paul Clarke. Result: 9-3,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Paul Clarke: 4,628, level confidence: 52%. Starting level for Jason Mathias: 2,888, level confidence: 64%. Paul Clarke to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Jason Mathias. Paul Clarke won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Clarke played 209% better than Jason Mathias in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Clarke actually played at a level of 6,426 and Jason Mathias at a level of 2,080. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Clarke changes to +30% and Jason Mathias changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Clarke becomes +9.1% and for Jason Mathias becomes -8.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Paul Clarke is +6.8% and for Jason Mathias is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jason Mathias is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Clarke: 72%, Jason Mathias: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Clarke: 52%, Jason Mathias: 58%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Clarke: 4,955, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Jason Mathias: 2,757, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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