|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesRichard Masom v Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (Thu 08 Nov 2018)Match won by Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Result: 10-8,10-8,7-9,6-9,2-9.Starting level for Richard Masom: 1,586, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,214, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Richard Masom to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams won 60% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played 10% better than Richard Masom in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams actually played at a level of 1,457 and Richard Masom at a level of 1,322. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to +17% and Richard Masom changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes +9.1% and for Richard Masom becomes -7.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is +4.6% and for Richard Masom is -3.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 87%, Richard Masom: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 72%, Richard Masom: 75%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Masom: 1,552, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,263, level confidence: 72%. Notes
|