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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Weston A v Redland Z (Thu 04 Mar 2010)Match played between Viv Barber (home) and Catherine Thompson (away).Match won by Catherine Thompson. Result: 1-9,3-9,0-9. Starting level for Viv Barber: 167, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Catherine Thompson: 208, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Catherine Thompson to win as she is currently playing 25% better than Viv Barber. Catherine Thompson won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Catherine Thompson played 164% better than Viv Barber in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Catherine Thompson actually played at a level of 303 and Viv Barber at a level of 115. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Catherine Thompson changes to +40% and Viv Barber changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Catherine Thompson becomes +20.1% and for Viv Barber becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Catherine Thompson is +15% and for Viv Barber is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Catherine Thompson is limited to +10% and Viv Barber is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Catherine Thompson: 86%, Viv Barber: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Catherine Thompson: 59%, Viv Barber: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Viv Barber: 159, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Catherine Thompson: 228, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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