|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 27 Mar 2019)Match played between Cameron Haddow (home) and Jared London (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-5:11-2,11-7,11-9:8-11,11-6,11-2,11-7:12-10,5-11,11-7,11-6:11-8,11-8,8-11,7-11,11-4. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 7,512, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Jared London: 9,984, level confidence: 66%. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Cameron Haddow. Cameron Haddow won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 56% better than Jared London in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Haddow actually played at a level of 10,832 and Jared London at a level of 6,924. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to +33% and Jared London changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes +8.7% and for Jared London becomes -9.1%. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is +5.9% and for Jared London is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jared London is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 87%, Jared London: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 60%, Jared London: 56%. A final adjustment of +3.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 8,153, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Jared London: 9,918, level confidence: 56%. Notes
|