|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd A v University of Bath 1 (Wed 13 Feb 2019)Match played between Jared London (home) and Charlie Griggs (away).Match won by Jared London. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-7,11-8:9-11,5-11,6-11:11-9,11-4,4-11,14-12:9-11,8-11,10-12:11-8,11-9,11-4. Starting level for Jared London: 10,522, level confidence: 46%. Starting level for Charlie Griggs: 7,694, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Charlie Griggs. Jared London won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jared London played 27% better than Charlie Griggs in this match. As Jared London has played below his allowed range at 9,791, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Jared London would normally have been playing at level 10,198 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Griggs played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jared London changes to 0% and Charlie Griggs changes to +1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jared London becomes -0.1% and for Charlie Griggs becomes +0.6%. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Given Charlie Griggs's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jared London is 0% and for Charlie Griggs is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jared London: 68%, Charlie Griggs: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jared London: 66%, Charlie Griggs: 86%. A final adjustment of +2.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jared London: 11,016, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Charlie Griggs: 7,779, level confidence: 86%. Notes
|