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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Thornbury A (Wed 09 Jan 2019)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Callum Davidson (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 8-11,8-11,11-5,11-9,9-11:10-12,11-9,11-7,8-11,3-11:6-11,4-11,11-4,12-14:11-5,11-6,7-11,7-11,11-4:11-7,11-6,12-14,11-3. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 9,001, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 9,961, level confidence: 56%. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Jack Alcock. Callum Davidson won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 8% better than Jack Alcock in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Callum Davidson actually played at a level of 9,818 and Jack Alcock at a level of 9,133. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to -1.4% and Jack Alcock changes to +1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes -0.7% and for Jack Alcock becomes +0.6%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is -0.4% and for Jack Alcock is +0.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 75%, Jack Alcock: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 74%, Jack Alcock: 79%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 9,047, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Callum Davidson: 9,904, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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