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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 13 Feb 2019)Match played between Dave Naish (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 10-12,2-11,8-11. Starting level for Dave Naish: 6,411, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 9,207, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Dave Naish. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 70% better than Dave Naish in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 10,017 and Dave Naish at a level of 5,892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 7.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +5.6% and Dave Naish changes to -7.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +2.2% and for Dave Naish becomes -2.8%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Dave Naish's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +1.4% and for Dave Naish is -2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 92%, Dave Naish: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 84%, Dave Naish: 74%. A final adjustment of -1.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dave Naish: 6,260, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 9,072, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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