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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 27 Feb 2019)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Max Millar (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-7. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 8,918, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Max Millar: 7,025, level confidence: 55%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Max Millar. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 50% better than Max Millar in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 9,700 and Max Millar at a level of 6,458. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 7.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +5.7% and Max Millar changes to -7.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +2.2% and for Max Millar becomes -2.9%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Max Millar's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +1.4% and for Max Millar is -2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 87%, Max Millar: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 80%, Max Millar: 68%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 9,289, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Max Millar: 6,783, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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