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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 27 Feb 2019)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Charlie Griggs (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-8:7-11,7-11,11-8,11-7,11-9:11-4,12-10,11-9:11-5,11-8,9-11,11-6:11-3,11-9,11-4. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 13,218, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Charlie Griggs: 7,384, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Charlie Griggs. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 136% better than Charlie Griggs in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 15,168 and Charlie Griggs at a level of 6,435. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.8% and 10.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +10.8% and Charlie Griggs changes to -9.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +3.2% and for Charlie Griggs becomes -3.2%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Given Charlie Griggs's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +1.9% and for Charlie Griggs is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 86%, Charlie Griggs: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 75%, Charlie Griggs: 81%. A final adjustment of +2.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 13,564, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Charlie Griggs: 7,599, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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