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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 27 Feb 2019)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 7-11,7-11,11-8,11-7,11-9. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,486, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 7,538, level confidence: 70%. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 8% better than Cameron Haddow in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 7,268 and Cameron Haddow at a level of 6,727. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +11% and Cameron Haddow changes to -7.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +3.8% and for Cameron Haddow becomes -2.8%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6% has been applied to his level change. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +2.7% and for Cameron Haddow is -1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 70%, Cameron Haddow: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 62%, Cameron Haddow: 75%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,486, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 7,664, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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