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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 27 Feb 2019)Match played between Bradley Clare (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 8-11,11-9,10-12,10-12. Starting level for Bradley Clare: 5,425, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Dale Diment: 7,711, level confidence: 65%. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Bradley Clare. Dale Diment won 75% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 21% better than Bradley Clare in this match. As Dale Diment has played below his allowed range at 6,812, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Dale Diment would normally have been playing at level 7,420 (based on typical behaviour), Bradley Clare played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 5.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to -2.4% and Bradley Clare changes to +5.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes -1.3% and for Bradley Clare becomes +2.4%. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.3% has been applied to his level change. Given Bradley Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is -0.9% and for Bradley Clare is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 81%, Bradley Clare: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 75%, Bradley Clare: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bradley Clare: 5,519, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Dale Diment: 7,635, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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