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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 23 Jan 2019)Match played between Andy Ewings (home) and Chris Lawrance (away).Match won by Andy Ewings. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-9. Starting level for Andy Ewings: 6,064, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Chris Lawrance: 2,922, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Andy Ewings to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Chris Lawrance. Andy Ewings won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Ewings played 52% better than Chris Lawrance in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy Ewings was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,390 and 6,064 without affecting his level. In this case, Andy Ewings played at level 4,825 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andy Ewings would normally have been playing at level 5,253 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Lawrance played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Ewings changes to 0% and Chris Lawrance changes to +5.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Ewings becomes 0% and for Chris Lawrance becomes +3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Andy Ewings is 0% and for Chris Lawrance is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Ewings: 82%, Chris Lawrance: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Ewings: 70%, Chris Lawrance: 72%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Ewings: 6,093, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Chris Lawrance: 2,987, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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