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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd A v Lansdown 1 (Wed 06 Mar 2019)Match played between Jared London (home) and Luke Bishop (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 3-11,11-9,2-11,1-11:9-11,11-9,11-9,8-11,7-11:5-11,5-11,7-11:5-11,3-11,1-11:6-11,8-11,4-11. Starting level for Jared London: 10,476, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 13,564, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Jared London. Luke Bishop won 75% of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 147% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 65% better than Jared London in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 15,325 and Jared London at a level of 9,272. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +8.4% and Jared London changes to -11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +2.6% and for Jared London becomes -3.5%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +1.6% and for Jared London is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 85%, Jared London: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 75%, Jared London: 65%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jared London: 10,219, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Luke Bishop: 14,077, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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