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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 23 Jan 2019)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Tom Elgood (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 7-11,11-6,11-8,11-7. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 9,047, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Tom Elgood: 6,820, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Tom Elgood. Jack Alcock won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 25% better than Tom Elgood in this match. As Jack Alcock has played below his allowed range at 8,529, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Alcock would normally have been playing at level 8,815 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Elgood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to 0% and Tom Elgood changes to +1.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes -0% and for Tom Elgood becomes +0.8%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Tom Elgood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is 0% and for Tom Elgood is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 86%, Tom Elgood: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 84%, Tom Elgood: 85%. A final adjustment of +2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 9,213, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Tom Elgood: 7,072, level confidence: 85%. Notes
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