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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v University of Bath 1 (Wed 20 Feb 2019)Match played between Callum Davidson (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 11-3,11-5,12-10. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 11,248, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 8,253, level confidence: 67%. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Cameron Haddow. Callum Davidson won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 89% better than Cameron Haddow in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Callum Davidson actually played at a level of 13,242 and Cameron Haddow at a level of 7,010. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to +13% and Cameron Haddow changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes +3.8% and for Cameron Haddow becomes -4.5%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is +2.4% and for Cameron Haddow is -3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 87%, Cameron Haddow: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 74%, Cameron Haddow: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Callum Davidson: 11,494, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 8,000, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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