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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Thornbury A (Wed 06 Mar 2019)Match played between Charlie Griggs (home) and Jeremy Harris (away).Match won by Jeremy Harris. Result: 11-8,5-11,9-11,9-11:11-7,11-9:11-7,11-13,11-6,11-3:10-12,11-5,8-11,8-11:11-2,11-9,11-8. Starting level for Charlie Griggs: 7,599, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 10,901, level confidence: 43%. Jeremy Harris to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Charlie Griggs. Jeremy Harris won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Harris played 24% better than Charlie Griggs in this match. As Jeremy Harris has played below his allowed range at 9,668, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Jeremy Harris would normally have been playing at level 10,470 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Griggs played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 4.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris changes to -2.5% and Charlie Griggs changes to +2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris becomes -1.2% and for Charlie Griggs becomes +1.4%. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Given Charlie Griggs's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jeremy Harris is -0.8% and for Charlie Griggs is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Harris: 66%, Charlie Griggs: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Harris: 61%, Charlie Griggs: 80%. A final adjustment of -1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Griggs: 7,486, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 10,786, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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