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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Thornbury A (Wed 13 Mar 2019)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Jonny Taylor (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-0,11-8. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 8,058, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Jonny Taylor: 6,066, level confidence: 68%. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Jonny Taylor. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won 75% of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 37% better than Jonny Taylor in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 8,185 and Jonny Taylor at a level of 5,972. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +1.2% and Jonny Taylor changes to -1.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +0.7% and for Jonny Taylor becomes -0.8%. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Given Jonny Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +0.4% and for Jonny Taylor is -0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 86%, Jonny Taylor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 85%, Jonny Taylor: 81%. A final adjustment of -3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,686, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Jonny Taylor: 5,989, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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