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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 13 Mar 2019)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Charlie Griggs (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-9,11-2,11-5:6-11,9-11,4-11:7-11,11-4,11-4,10-12,11-13:4-11,9-11,11-5,5-11:11-4,8-11,11-9,12-10. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 8,424, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Charlie Griggs: 7,486, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Charlie Griggs. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 106% better than Charlie Griggs in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 11,405 and Charlie Griggs at a level of 5,530. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +33% and Charlie Griggs changes to -33%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +8.5% and for Charlie Griggs becomes -8.7%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Given Charlie Griggs's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +5.7% and for Charlie Griggs is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Charlie Griggs is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 89%, Charlie Griggs: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 66%, Charlie Griggs: 66%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 8,853, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Charlie Griggs: 7,206, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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