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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 13 Mar 2019)Match played between Richard King (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 6-11,9-11,4-11. Starting level for Richard King: 6,153, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 7,614, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Richard King. Cameron Haddow won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 74% better than Richard King in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Haddow actually played at a level of 9,020 and Richard King at a level of 5,194. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to +16% and Richard King changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes +5% and for Richard King becomes -5.2%. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.9% has been applied to his level change. Given Richard King's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is +3.4% and for Richard King is -3.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 87%, Richard King: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 74%, Richard King: 74%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard King: 5,937, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 7,866, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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