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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Lansdown 1 (Wed 06 Feb 2019)Match played between Lily Taylor (home) and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (away).Match won by Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Result: 4-11,8-11,6-11. Starting level for Lily Taylor: 7,406, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 4,031, level confidence: 20%. Lily Taylor to win as she is currently playing 84% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles played 83% better than Lily Taylor in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam 'The Hulk' Giles actually played at a level of 7,398 and Lily Taylor at a level of 4,035. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 84% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 57% and 57% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to +57% and Lily Taylor changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes +16% and for Lily Taylor becomes -3.9%. Given Lily Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.2% has been applied to her level change. Looks like she wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is +12% and for Lily Taylor is -2.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is limited to +10.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 45%, Lily Taylor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 24%, Lily Taylor: 45%. A final adjustment of +19.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lily Taylor: 7,065, level confidence: 45%. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 6,486, level confidence: 24%. Notes
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