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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 20 Mar 2019)Match played between Adam 'The Hulk' Giles (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 9-11,9-11,10-12. Starting level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,686, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 8,853, level confidence: 63%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 33% better than Adam 'The Hulk' Giles in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 9,495 and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles at a level of 7,166. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +6.7% and Adam 'The Hulk' Giles changes to -5.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +2.5% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles becomes -2.3%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Adam 'The Hulk' Giles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +1.6% and for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 80%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 74%, Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 80%. A final adjustment of -3.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam 'The Hulk' Giles: 7,230, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 8,735, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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