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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: David Lloyd A v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 23 Jan 2019)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and Adam Sindall-White (away).Match won by Rusty Pearce. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-0:11-5,11-6,7-11,6-11,11-6:13-11,11-3,12-10:?-?:?-?. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 6,086, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Adam Sindall-White: 4,858, level confidence: 53%. Rusty Pearce to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Adam Sindall-White. Rusty Pearce won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rusty Pearce played 230% better than Adam Sindall-White in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rusty Pearce actually played at a level of 9,878 and Adam Sindall-White at a level of 2,993. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 62% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 54% and 54% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce changes to +47% and Adam Sindall-White changes to -54%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce becomes +12.4% and for Adam Sindall-White becomes -15%. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Rusty Pearce is +8.9% and for Adam Sindall-White is -10.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adam Sindall-White is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rusty Pearce: 78%, Adam Sindall-White: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rusty Pearce: 48%, Adam Sindall-White: 45%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 6,622, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Adam Sindall-White: 4,617, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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