|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: David Lloyd A v Redland B (Wed 20 Mar 2019)Match played between Rusty Pearce (home) and Phil Rea (away).Match won by Rusty Pearce. Result: 3-11,7-11,11-4,11-5,11-1:11-9,11-6,11-4:11-8,11-7,11-7:11-3,11-8,6-11,11-6:14-12,10-12,11-3,4-11,11-4. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 6,921, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Phil Rea: 4,209, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Rusty Pearce to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Phil Rea. Rusty Pearce won 60% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rusty Pearce played 16% better than Phil Rea in this match. As Rusty Pearce has played below his allowed range at 5,370, his level reduction is 9.9% before damping. On the assumption that Rusty Pearce would normally have been playing at level 6,448 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Rea played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce changes to -7.6% and Phil Rea changes to +9.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rusty Pearce becomes -2.9% and for Phil Rea becomes +3.8%. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Rusty Pearce is -2% and for Phil Rea is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rusty Pearce: 83%, Phil Rea: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rusty Pearce: 70%, Phil Rea: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 6,781, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Phil Rea: 4,323, level confidence: 76%. Notes
|