|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Workout Harbourside v University of Bristol Ballers (Tue 26 Feb 2019)Match played between Makgosi Peloakgosi (home) and Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown (away).Match won by Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown. Result: 9-11,11-6,5-11,5-11. Starting level for Makgosi Peloakgosi: 2,086, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 2,746, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Makgosi Peloakgosi. Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown played 27% better than Makgosi Peloakgosi in this match. In this case, Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown played at level 2,660 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown would normally have been playing at level 2,679 (based on typical behaviour), Makgosi Peloakgosi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown changes to 0% and Makgosi Peloakgosi changes to +0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown becomes 0% and for Makgosi Peloakgosi becomes +0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown is 0% and for Makgosi Peloakgosi is +0.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 91%, Makgosi Peloakgosi: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 90%, Makgosi Peloakgosi: 85%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Makgosi Peloakgosi: 2,097, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 2,786, level confidence: 90%. Notes
|