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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Weston String Strokers v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 20 Mar 2019)Match played between Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison (home) and James ‘The Tinman’ Lee (away).Match won by James ‘The Tinman’ Lee. Result: 6-11,11-9,11-13,5-11. Starting level for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 2,117, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 2,635, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. James ‘The Tinman’ Lee to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison. James ‘The Tinman’ Lee won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James ‘The Tinman’ Lee played 28% better than Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James ‘The Tinman’ Lee actually played at a level of 2,670 and Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison at a level of 2,090. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee changes to +1.2% and Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison changes to -1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee becomes +0.8% and for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison becomes -0.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee is +0.6% and for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison is -0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 88%, Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 87%, Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 87%. A final adjustment of -2.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 2,016, level confidence: 87%. Final level for James ‘The Tinman’ Lee: 2,625, level confidence: 87%. Notes
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