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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 2 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 27 Feb 2019)Match played between Anubhav Swara (home) and Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown (away).Match won by Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown. Result: 12-15,3-15,7-15. Starting level for Anubhav Swara: 2,061, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 2,786, level confidence: 89%. Set manually. Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Anubhav Swara. Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown played 105% better than Anubhav Swara in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown actually played at a level of 3,427 and Anubhav Swara at a level of 1,675. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown changes to +12% and Anubhav Swara changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown becomes +5.2% and for Anubhav Swara becomes -8.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown is +3.9% and for Anubhav Swara is -6.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 94%, Anubhav Swara: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 76%, Anubhav Swara: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anubhav Swara: 1,939, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Milo 'Chief' Jackson-Brown: 2,890, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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