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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath 2 v Westbury David Lloyd B (Wed 20 Feb 2019)Match played between Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan (home) and Oli Hill (away).Match won by Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Result: 15-7,15-10,15-11. Starting level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 1,895, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Oli Hill: 2,311, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Oli Hill to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan played 61% better than Oli Hill in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan actually played at a level of 2,653 and Oli Hill at a level of 1,651. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan changes to +36% and Oli Hill changes to -35%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan becomes +14% and for Oli Hill becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan is +10.5% and for Oli Hill is -9.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Oli Hill is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 86%, Oli Hill: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 62%, Oli Hill: 62%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Milind 'Wall Destroyer' Chohan: 2,050, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Oli Hill: 2,179, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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