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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 3 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 20 Mar 2019)Match played between Phil Cooney (home) and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg (away).Match won by Phil Cooney. Result: 15-8,15-6,15-4. Starting level for Phil Cooney: 2,130, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,305, level confidence: 65%. Phil Cooney to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg. Phil Cooney won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Cooney played 150% better than Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Cooney actually played at a level of 2,636 and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg at a level of 1,054. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Cooney changes to +17% and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Cooney becomes +7.3% and for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg becomes -9.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Phil Cooney is +5.4% and for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is -6.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Cooney: 83%, Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Cooney: 67%, Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Phil Cooney: 2,224, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,239, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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