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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v University of Bath 4 (Thu 28 Feb 2019)Match played between Clive Stiff (home) and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (away).Match won by Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Result: 9-15,12-15,7-15. Starting level for Clive Stiff: 974, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,406, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Clive Stiff. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex 'Anger Management' Snook played 61% better than Clive Stiff in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex 'Anger Management' Snook actually played at a level of 1,484 and Clive Stiff at a level of 923. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to +3.7% and Clive Stiff changes to -4.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes +2.9% and for Clive Stiff becomes -3.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is +2.2% and for Clive Stiff is -2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 85%, Clive Stiff: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 81%, Clive Stiff: 73%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Clive Stiff: 953, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,450, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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